Investor Insights

This week, Governor Philip Lowe gave an address on inflation in a rapidly evolving economic environment. ​ RBA speech on price stability, the supply side and prosperity1 ​ ​In this week’s address, the Governor’s key topic was inflation.

At Australian Eagle, the external environment is not something we can control but it is something we do pay attention to. It plays a part in our investment thesis on stocks and will always be an important consideration in terms of our assessment of the quality of a company.

  In this week’s video insight Roger suggests a repeatable way to invest, in a sector of the Australian stock market, that appears to have provided excellent returns to those who have applied it in the past. That sector is retailers, and there are three companies that should be on your watch-list.

ResMed (ASX:RMD) is an Aussie-grown international success story. Now based in San Diego, it’s the world leader in the Sleep Disordered Breathing market, providing devices for treating sleep apnea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and other respiratory conditions. RMD’s share price has grown a whopping 3,800 per cent since listing in 1999, and we’re confident there’s more growth to come.

It’s a tough time to be a retailer, what with increasing interest rates, fuel and energy costs putting a squeeze on consumer spending. And some retailers are particularly adversely affected. Which is why investors need to be highly selective – especially when it comes to buying shares in consumer discretionary businesses.

This week, the wage price index demonstrated that real wages are struggling to keep up with the rate of inflation. The labour force remains extremely tight, hitting a high point in 4 decades. With rates rising and migration coming back, we expect this to be close to the peak.

Both Australian Eagle and Montgomery have had a position in Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) for some time. The positive view on the company would seem obvious given the heavy emphasis on first identifying quality businesses in both Australian Eagle’s and Montgomery’s investment process.

  In this week’s video insight Roger addresses wave of fixed-rate mortgages that will soon revert to much higher rates and the impact this will have on national property prices. So exactly how many mortgages were written and is there actually a cliff we need to worry about?

Portfolio Manager, Rob Forker, and the team running the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund have recently added two healthcare related companies to the portfolio. Dechra Pharmaceuticals Based in Norwich, England, Dechra Pharmaceuticals is involved in the development, manufacture, marketing and sales of veterinary products across 72 countries worldwide.

There are many factors that come into play when you consider constructing a portfolio of stocks. Many people want to see a line up of superstars who are expected to shoot the lights out. Having said that, as we all know in investment markets there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Instead of trying to speculate when the market will turn around, I think investors would be better off focusing on changes in interest rates. After all, history teaches us that changes in interest rates, and the extent to which rates rise beyond consensus estimates, are a major determinant of price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and, therefore, sharemarket returns.

Given the considerable volatility of markets this year it is no surprise investors are seeking to derive income from areas not correlated to traditional asset classes, namely equities and bonds.