Investor Insights

March 23, 2023

Are today’s circumstances similar to the GFC?

By Roger Montgomery

  In this week’s video insight Roger reviews the current market situation, including the collapse of U. S. banks and in the fast-moving financial markets, while it may seem risky to rule out another GFC, the probability, upon an assessment of the odds, appears to be low.
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March 21, 2023

Volatility is the window to opportunity

By Michael Gollagher

In the past fortnight we have seen the markets swing from a focus on interest rates and inflation, to the prospect of the stability of the Global Financial System post the failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks in the U. S.
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March 20, 2023

This too will pass

By Roger Montgomery

Market and finance commentators have expended enormous energy writing on the subject of the collapse of Silicon Valley, Signature and Silvergate banks, and the subsequent challenges faced by Credit Suisse. And equally expert commentary will soon speculate about who’ll be next and then about those that subsequently do collapse (First Republic Bank anyone?
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March 16, 2023

What does the U.S. yield curve tell us about recessions?

By Roger Montgomery

Today, the vast majority of the U. S. yield curve is negatively sloped. Every time this has happened in the past, a recession soon followed. This is no doubt troubling for those adversely affected. But, as an investor, I am not unduly concerned – any market turmoil could present opportunities to invest in quality businesses at bargain prices.
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March 14, 2023

Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 10 March 2023

By Brett Craig

The RBA is “resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.” Last week’s 25 basis point rise to the official cash rate, now sitting at 3.6 per cent, forms part of the RBA’s approach to reign inflation back into the 2-3 per cent target range, implying that further pain is ahead.

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March 10, 2023

Let down by bonds? Private debt is worth a look

By Roger Montgomery

For all the doom and gloom being proffered by various analysts it might surprise you to learn the Australian economy is actually growing. And it grew 2. 7 per cent over the last year. Sure, the rate of growth might be slowing, but we’re still growing.
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March 9, 2023

Is QBE finally back on track?

By Sean Sequeira

Just a cursory glance at the share price history of QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE) is enough to scare most investors away. After hitting a high of around $34 back in 2007, the stock has more than halved to around $15.
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March 7, 2023

Cash-strapped borrowers are hammering the housing sector

By Roger Montgomery

Rising interest rates are already having a major impact on the Australian housing sector.   Dwelling approvals are down, an increasing number of off-the-plan buyers are trying to exit their purchases, and furniture and appliance sales are declining. If you’re looking to invest in companies exposed to housing, I’d suggest it’s a case of buyer beware.
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March 6, 2023

Hardly normal conditions for Harvey Norman

By Roger Montgomery

For big-ticket household items, established retailer Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) is a bellwether company, offering insights into consumer behaviour and retail conditions, particularly in Australia. The company recently released its first-half results, and reactions were mixed. On the positive side, the company returned to disclosing quarterly sales growth rates.
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March 3, 2023

Why Private Debt may be superior to bonds

By Roger Montgomery

Looking for a higher rate of income? Who isn’t? But are bonds best? For decades investors have been told bonds provide uncorrelated ‘ballast’ for a portfolio of shares whilst generating much-needed regular income. The idea has been that shares offer growth, with bonds also offering diversification and stability.
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March 1, 2023

Don’t bet on a U.S. recession in 2023

By Roger Montgomery

After a 4. 65 per cent increase in interest rates this past year, why isn’t the U. S. economy tanking?  And why aren’t retail sales plummeting? One reason, perhaps, is that during the pandemic, many home buyers locked in fixed-rate 30-year mortgages at ultra-low rates, and they are thus unaffected by recent rate rises.
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