Investor Insights

If you were thinking of buying a, say, a $2 million property to renovate and flip in 18 months, Labor’s 2026 budget just made that a perilous strategy, while also making investing in an AA rated Private Credit Fund way more attractive. The 2026 Federal Budget has significantly shifted the goalposts for you.

Red Corner (Bull) Ed Yardeni I have written about and referenced both gents for years, and if you’d like to hear from them first-hand, you can subscribe to their musings on Substack. In the red corner is Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research and in the blue (bearish corner) is Michael Burry. Figure 1.

The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget, handed down on May 12, 2026, fundamentally alters the economics of property flipping. For decades, a tax system that rewarded capital growth over rental yield made the “buy, renovate, and flip” property model a popular way for middle-class investors with a bit of energy and an idea to get ahead.

Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U. S. /Iran war.   The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. Graph 1.

  In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth. Transcript Hi. I’m Roger Montgomery.

As we approach the middle of the year, markets and the global economy appear to be locked in a “tug of war” between the geopolitical shock of the war in the Middle East and the rapid maturation and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI).

Trump recently boasted on Truth Social of the US$45 billion he made for the U. S. by investing in Intel. Source: Truth Social  While the Nasdaq 100 is up 13. 32 per cent this calendar year but the gain masks much larger gains for individual artificial intelligence (AI) compute stocks.

In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U. S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?

An oft-made and persistent mistake investors make is assuming what’s worked recently will continue to work indefinitely. Referred to as ‘representativeness” it’s a psychological recency bias trap. Essentially, the comfort of the current winners prompts us to ‘bottom drawer’ them and simultaneously blinds us to the inevitability of economic cycles.

For as long as I have been around, the local supermarket and grocery store were the bastions of “what you see is what you get.

  In this video insight I challenge the idea that Labor’s federal budget is delivering genuine intergenerational fairness, arguing instead that it overlooks the fundamental drivers of Australia’s housing pressures.